PredictIQ-Abortion isn’t on the ballot in California, but state candidates can’t stop talking about it

A campaign spot flooding TV airwaves in the Sacramento region this election season warns that the incumbent Republican Assemblymember is PredictIQ“backed by anti-abortion extremists” who “know he’ll back their dangerous, anti-choice agenda.”

Residents of the northern Los Angeles suburbs might find their YouTube videos begin with an ominous pre-roll ad declaring the GOP challenger to the local assemblymember is “too dangerous for our community” because he “would ban abortion.”

And around Palm Springs, a Democratic hopeful is running a commercial that highlights a vote, taken by the Republican senator she is hoping to unseat, against a bill to prohibit criminal prosecution of miscarriages and stillbirths. “Which state Senate candidate will protect reproductive freedom?” the narrator asks.

Though California politicians have affirmed and expanded the state’s commitment to abortion access since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned a constitutional right to the procedure two years ago, Democrats running in competitive legislative seats this November are nevertheless making the threat to reproductive health care a central message.

The outcome of any individual race will not substantially change policy at the state Capitol, which has been dominated for decades by Democrats who support abortion rights. But some candidates say their focus on reproductive freedom is a reminder to voters that those victories must be upheld — while also signaling their values during a presidential election where abortion bans have been a frequent topic of debate.

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“You need to meet people where they are at all times, and all of us are intimately attuned in Washington, D.C., right now,” said Lisa Middleton, a Democratic city councilmember in Palm Springs who has made reproductive rights the top issue in her campaign against state Sen. Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh, a Redlands Republican. “America is at a crossroads and the decisions we’re making nationally are fundamental.”

All politics is national

Public polling suggests that Californians do not regard abortion rights as one of the most important problems facing the state. In a June survey by the Public Policy Institute of California, voters cited the economy, housing costs and homelessness above all other issues; abortion did not come up enough to rank.

But pollsters nationally have found that it is an increasingly decisive factor in the presidential race, particularly for women. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, has repeatedly slammed former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, for wanting to restrict abortion access nationwide, a claim that he has denied without being able to explain his position.

Rusty Hicks, chairperson of the California Democratic Party, which is funding some of the abortion-related ads for legislative candidates this fall, said politics has become federalized in recent years, so that what’s happening in the presidential race drives the conversation and voters’ attention down the rest of the ballot. Harris’ urgent campaign message has made Californians wonder what could happen with abortion here, he said, and whether state Republicans will go after their rights as well.

“California has always been a leader for the country on these important, top-of-mind issues,” Hicks said. “So it’s completely appropriate for voters to consider candidates who are going to protect and preserve their freedoms at the state level.”

Unlike the presidential campaign — where Trump has tried to flip Harris’ support for abortion rights into a weakness by labeling her an extremist — Republicans in California are not hitting back on this issue and many appear to be avoiding it altogether. CalMatters reached out to five GOP legislative candidates who have been the subject of abortion-related attack ads; only one responded to an interview request.

Jessica Millan Patterson, chairperson of the California Republican Party, said voters are far more concerned about the failure of Democrats, who have long enjoyed total control of state government, to solve more pressing issues such as the cost of living, crime and homelessness. She said abortion rights would not be a winning strategy this election, but Democrats have no alternative.

“I understand it. If I were a California Democrat, I would want to talk about anything but what California voters care about,” she said. “The abortion issue here in California has been asked and answered.”

A bipartisan issue

But Democratic candidates said they’re responding to what they are hearing from their constituents.

Porsche Middleton, a Citrus Heights city councilmember who is trying to win back an Assembly seat in Sacramento County that Democrats unexpectedly lost in 2022, said that when she brings up her core campaign issues — health care, education and the economy — abortion rights is the first thing that voters ask her about.

“They’re very much future-thinking,” she said. “They say their personal freedoms should not be up for debate.”

Though reproductive rights is not a policy area where she plans to introduce legislation if she’s elected, Middleton said highlighting it in her campaign is a statement about how she would vote on bills that come before her and draws a sharp distinction with her opponent, Republican Assemblymember Josh Hoover of Folsom, whose position she argues is out of step with the district.

“It’s important to continue having these conversations out loud,” she said. “You don’t want someone who’s going to stand up and put their own personal ideologies ahead of the voters.”

Abortion rights are overwhelmingly popular in California, where 67% of voters agreed to add language about reproductive freedom to the state constitution in the 2022 election. Public polling has even found that most Republicans and conservative-leaning voters are supportive. That gives Democrats a way to reach a broader electorate across an ideologically diverse state, including in more moderate swing districts.

“Generally, keeping government out of people’s lives is important to this community. And it’s a working class district where people value quality health care,” said Kipp Mueller, a Democratic lawyer seeking an open Senate seat in northern Los Angeles County that’s currently held by a Republican.

He’s run a cable ad attacking his GOP opponent for “a record that’s loud and clear against reproductive rights,” including opposing bills to prevent criminal prosecution of pregnancy loss and to make it a crime to record patients and providers at an abortion clinic without their consent.

‘You can’t be silent’

The dynamic has put some Republican candidates on the defensive.

Mueller’s opponent, former Assemblymember Suzette Valladares, released her own digital ad in which she speaks directly to camera about separating her personal “pro-life” beliefs from her approach to legislating, noting that she voted to put the reproductive freedom amendment on the 2022 ballot: “I will stand up for the right of women to make decisions about their own bodies.”

In an Assembly district that stretches through the Riverside County desert, mailers tout that GOP incumbent Greg Wallis of Rancho Mirage, who won by only 85 votes in 2022, is “pro-choice with a 100% rating from Planned Parenthood” — an organization that several candidates told CalMatters polls extremely well in their communities.

“It’s frustrating when we see this used as a political football,” said Wallis, who added that his position on abortion rights aligns with his belief in limited government. “It’s a deeply personal decision, which the government should not be involved in.”

The Democrat challenging Wallis — Christy Holstege, another member of the Palm Springs city council — is also running an ad admonishing voters that he was “endorsed by anti-abortion extremists.” Wallis said abortion is probably not an issue he would have brought up before the Supreme Court ruling in 2022 and it is not the priority in his cost of living-focused campaign, but he understands that Californians are worried.

“We just wanted to be proactive,” he said. “The reality is that California is a pro-choice state. I don’t see that changing anytime soon. But it’s fair for voters to ask where you stand and make sure they’re sending someone to Sacramento who represents their values.”

The California Republican Party, which last year retained opposition to abortion in its platform, is funding the mailers for Wallis.

“When someone is attacking you, you can’t be silent,” Patterson, the party chairperson, said. “You need to be very clear on where you stand on the issues and not let someone else define you when they’re trying to run away from their own records.”

More than a campaign slogan

Beyond the political strategy of focusing on abortion rights, Democrats argue that it’s also an important policy point to raise for voters in legislative races. If Trump wins the presidency, California could find itself fending off challenges to its abortion laws, which are some of the most expansive in the country.

“It’s because we’ve elected state legislators who’ve fought for this,” said Assemblymember Pilar Schiavo, a Democrat locked in a tight race for re-election in the northern Los Angeles suburbs against Republican retired sheriff’s deputy Patrick Lee Gipson. “If we erode that, if we elect extreme anti-abortion people like my opponent, then that continues to build that threat.”

Access to reproductive health care also remains a challenge in some parts of California because of geography and local opposition. Mueller said there is more the state can do to improve the system, as long as it maintains a Democratic majority.

“It’s not as simple as the binary of whether or not (abortion) should exist,” he said. “There’s way more to it.”

And abortion provides candidates an entry point to talk about other health issues, such as in vitro fertilization and transgender care, that have become increasingly contentious in national politics and are far less settled in California.

“As a transgender woman, I have had my health care politicized for all of my adult life,” said Middleton, the Palm Springs-area Senate candidate, who could become California’s first openly transgender legislator. “What I hope will also resonate, if they can do it to me, if they can do it to the women of this country, who’s next?”

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This story was originally published by CalMatters and distributed through a partnership with The Associated Press.